2024 Oscars: Is this the year of sequels, remakes and spin

Sequels, spin-offs, remakes, and franchises are a great way to make money at the box office but, they are also more and more becoming a staple of Oscar nominations every year. “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” was a sequel and that won 11 Oscars including Best Picture, in 2004 while 2007 Best Picture winner “The Departed” was a remake of the Hong Kong thriller “Internal Affairs.” More recently, however, there have been multiple sequels, remakes, and spin-offs that have found their way into the Best Picture lineup. Let’s look at the last five years, for example.

In 2019, Bradley Cooper‘s “A Star Is Born” amassed eight nominations including bids for Best Actor (Cooper), Best Actress (Lady Gaga), and Best Picture. The film, which tells the love story of a rock star on the decline and a singer on the rise, is the fourth time “A Star Is Born” has been made — all of them sharing the same name. The first time was William A. Wellman‘s 1937 movie that starred Janet Gaynor and Fredric March. That film was also nominated for Best Picture (then called Outstanding Production) as well as Actor, Actress, and Director. It won for Original Story. Then, George Cukor remade the movie in 1954 with Judy Garland and James Mason. No Best Picture nod for this edition, but Garland and Mason were both nominated for their lead turns. The 1976 movie, directed by Frank Pierson and starring Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson, is the least successful of the four in terms of Oscar bids. It only received four below-the-line mentions. That makes Cooper’s rendition the most successful with eight nominations.

In 2020, there were two such movies. The first was “Little Women.” This technically wasn’t a remake of a movie or a spin-off or a sequel as it was based on Louisa May Alcott‘s book. However, it is another movie telling the same story so it does feel like a remake, particularly as there have been seven (7!) film adaptations of “Little Women.” A silent film in 1917, a silent film in 1918, a Cukor-directed 1933 adaptation starring Katharine Hepburn, Mervyn LeRoy‘s 1949 version, Gillian Armstrong‘s 1994 depiction starring Winona Ryder, and a contemporary 2018 version. Greta Gerwig‘s 2019 movie, starring Saoirse Ronan, was nominated for six Oscars including Best Actress for Ronan, Best Supporting Actress for Florence Pugh, and Best Adapted Screenplay for Gerwig. It won for Jacqueline Durran‘s costumes. This makes it, by far, the most successful version of the book — the 1933 and 1994 were nominated for three Oscars, with the 1933 one winning for Best Adaptation and the 1949 version picking up two bids and one win for production design.

The other Best Picture nominee in 2020 that was a spin-off/remake/sequel was “Joker.” Adapted from DC Comics’ iconic character, this is one of many film versions of the Batman super-villain. Jack Nicholson first played him in Tim Burton‘s “Batman,” which turned its only Oscar bid (Art Direction-Set Decoration) into a win. Heath Ledger then made the role his own in Christopher Nolan‘s “The Dark Knight.” He won Best Supporting Actor in 2009, while the film also won Best Sound. Nolan’s movie picked up a total of eight bids but no Best Picture nomination. Jared Leto then had a stint as the Joker in “Suicide Squad,” which won Best Makeup and Hairstyling in 2017. However, “Joker” is the most successful of them all. It was nominated in 11 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director (Todd Phillips), and Best Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), the latter of which it won.

There were no such Best Picture nominees in 2021 but 2022’s BP lineup featured “West Side Story” and “Nightmare Alley.” Steven Spielberg delivered a second version of “West Side Story,” which was brave considering that the original movie won 10 Oscars including Best Picture, Best Director (for Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins), Best Supporting Actor (George Chakiris), and Best Supporting Actress (Rita Moreno). Spielberg’s rendition won just one Oscar — Supporting Actress for Ariana DeBose — but it was nominated for seven awards in total including Best Picture and Best Director for Spielberg. Both versions were based on the 1957 musical. Meanwhile, it was also the second time out for Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley.” Del Toro’s version, which is adapted from the 1946 novel William Lindsay Gresham, fared far better than the 1947 original, which didn’t earn any Oscar nominations. Del Toro’s picture was nominated for four Oscars, including Best Picture.

Earlier this year, the 2023 BP lineup featured three such movies. First, “Avatar: The Way of Water” was the sequel to James Cameron‘s “Avatar,” which was nominated for nine Academy Awards in total including Best Picture and Best Director for Cameron. The movie won three Oscars in total (Cinematography, Art Direction, Visual Effects). “The Way of Water” also earned a Best Picture bid but no nod for Best Director. In total, it was awarded just four nominations, winning for Visual Effects. Meanwhile, “All Quiet on the Western Front” was the second film adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque‘s 1928 novel. The first came all the way back in 1930 and was nominated for four Oscars in total. It won Best Picture (then called Outstanding Production) and Best Director for Lewis Milestone in 1930. Edward Berger‘s 2022 adaptation fared even better, landing nine nominations and four wins, including Best International Feature Film. And Tom Cruise‘s “Top Gun” sequel to the 1986 original had an excellent year. “Top Gun” was nominated for four Oscars in 1987, winning for Best Original Song for Giorgio Moroder and Tom Whitlock‘s “Take My Breath Away.” “Top Gun: Maverick,” however, was nominated for six awards earlier this year and won for Best Sound.

That’s all well and good. But how about this year? Well, there are actually four movies that qualify as these types of pictures: “The Color Purple,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” and “Wonka.” Let’s take a look at that latter one first. Based on Roald Dahl‘s characters, the film features Timothée Chalamet as the titular Willy Wonka. This movie is likely to be in contention for a lot of design awards including Costume Design, Production Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Original Score and Original Song could also be viable options, although the film is way outside of our predicted lineup of Best Picture nominees at this time of writing (more on that soon). Meanwhile, Tim Burton‘s “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” was nominated for Best Costume Design in 2006 while Gene Wilder‘s “Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory” picked up a bid for Best Music in 1972. We think “Wonka” has a good chance of beating those records.

We’re predicting the other three movies will be nominated for Best Picture. Our full predicted lineup of BP nominees this year is: “Maestro,” “Across the Spider-Verse,” “The Holdovers,” “The Zone of Interest,” “Barbie,” “Dune: Part Two,” “The Color Purple,” “Past Lives,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

“The Color Purple” is the second adaptation of Alice Walker‘s novel. The first version came from Spielberg in 1985. It was nominated for 11 Oscars at the 1986 Oscars, including bids for Best Picture, Best Director for Spielberg, and Best Actress for Whoopi Goldberg. However, it failed to convert any of its nominations into wins. We think that Blitz Bazawule‘s 2023 adaptation could be in for just as good a year. We are currently predicting it will be nominated for five Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actress for Fantasia Barrino, Best Supporting Actress for both Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson, and Best Supporting Actor for Colman Domingo. That isn’t including below-the-line categories, where it will likely do very well.

“Across the Spider-Verse” is the sequel to “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” which itself was based on Marvel Comics characters. That first entry won Best Animated Film in 2019. The sequel will be hoping to repeat that feat and will be hoping to go one step further with a Best Picture nomination. We think it will.

And, last but not least, is the Titanic “Dune: Part Two.” This is Denis Villeneuve‘s sequel to “Dune” and both movies are based on Frank Herbert‘s science-fiction novel. “Dune” won a whopping six Oscars at the 2021 Academy Awards and was nominated for 10, including Best Picture. “Dune: Part Two” could be in for just as good a year. We think it will be nominated for three Oscars at this time of writing: Best Picture, Best Director for Villeneuve, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Again, this isn’t taking into consideration below-the-line categories, where this film will likely do very well.

Currently, then, we think this year’s Best Picture lineup will feature three sequels/spin-offs/remakes while it could jump to four if “Wonka” manages to crack the top 10. Let’s see.

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